Projecting Lottery Rookie Roles

After the NBA draft and free agency have run their course, the NBA populous then turns their attention towards projecting what the coming year will look like. New faces are in new places, so-called superteams have been assembled, and more topically, a new class of talent is primed to enter the association.

As is the case every year, different members of the rookie class will distinguish themselves from the pack, both in ways good and bad. Even though every team wants to give their rookies a chance to grow and develop, the reality is that a large role is hard to come by, particularly in a player’s first year, and opportunity (and talent) varies from team to team.

I’ve projected the opportunities available for each 2016 lottery pick below, ranking them into 4 categories:

Starter and Above: this player is ready to contribute from Day 1, and his team has ample room for him to do so.

Role Player: this player is quick off the bench, likely either a 6th or 7th man, and will play a part in his team's success in the upcoming year.

Bench Player: this player may be lacking in either the skills or the opportunity to make his presence felt right away; he appears in games regularly, just not as part of the main rotation.

Garbage Time/D-League: this player may be a “project”, requiring much seasoning before he is ready for the NBA, or may have been drafted by his team not as a result of a positional deficiency. He will appear sparingly, racking up DNP’s, and may spend time in the Developmental League.

#1: Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

As is the case with most #1 picks, Simmons was selected by the Sixers based on his transformational talent and projected ability to rescue a franchise mired in a slump the likes of which the NBA has never seen before. Although the Australian may not possess a LeBron James tier ceiling, his exceptional floor vision and passing ability elevates everyone else on the floor, and there’s no  better way to work on his struggling outside shot than to battle-test it in games.

That being said, for all his ball handling and playmaking ability, Simmons is still 6’10” and will have to play the nominal power forward spot in the NBA, only further compounding the Sixers’ frontcourt logjam. Philadelphia has five young prospects deserving of court time this upcoming season in Simmons, Jahlil Okafor, Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric, the 2014 #12 pick who will be coming to the NBA from Croatia.

Rumors have been circulating for months about a potential trade involving one of either Okafor or Noel, but a deal has failed to come to fruition. Still, Simmons is more pro-ready than likely Embiid and Saric, and his court time shouldn’t suffer a great deal as a result of overcrowding.

Prediction: Starter and above

#2: Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers

Much like Simmons is often compared to James or Magic Johnson,  Ingram has garnered his own share of lofty expectations, as his spindly frame and fluid game remind many of new Warrior Kevin Durant. In free agency, the Lakers made moves that seemed to signify a desire to contend sooner than it appears their core will be ready.

The signing of Timofey Mosgov (4 years, $64 million) was without question one of the worst moves of the offseason by any team, and although the Luol Deng deal (4 years, $72 million) was maligned by some it is certainly not an outlandish price to pay for a valuable veteran leader and floor spacer. The Deng deal does become an issue however, when one considers what it does to Ingram’s potential role. If Deng is the presumptive starter at small forward (at least for this season) it appears that Ingram will be forced to the bench, as he cannot play power forward at his current weight, and the Lakers backcourt is stocked with the dynamic D’Angelo Russell and the newly re-signed Jordan Clarkson occupying spots.

Still, the Lakers would be remiss to bury Ingram on the bench and he will certainly play a large role for the team next season - it’s vital to his development that he receive ample court time and he is talented enough to make a positive contribution even as he learns the NBA ropes.

Prediction: Role Player

#3: Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics

Many Celtics fans were disappointed with the selection of Brown, and not necessarily because of the player himself. With so many middle-tier assets under their possession, the Celtics are seen by a consensus of league experts as being a “star away” from true title contention and taking Brown instead of trading the pick angered many Boston supporters.

Brown himself is very raw skill-wise, and will need some time to truly develop specific skills, specifically a jump shot. Even though swingman Evan Turner has signed with the Trail Blazers, Brown would still have to fight for minutes with 3-and-D specialist Jae Crowder and explosive leaper Gerald Green, though through merit the California product could usurp the latter. In time, Brown can and likely will be a part of a contending team, but for now, there’s just too much in his way to play a major role towards his team’s success.

Prediction: Role Player

#4: Dragan Bender, Phoenix Suns

Bender reminds many of Kristaps Porzingis, the Latvian sensation who was selected at the number four pick in last year’s draft, which may influence many to project a strident first season for the Croatian. However, as raw as we thought Porzingis may have been, it appears that Bender may be even more so. He looked especially weak during summer league, struggling to score in the post and not flashing a consistent enough three-point stroke.

Fortunately, the Suns front office planned for this timeline, bringing in fellow rookie Marquese Chriss (more on him later) and veteran Jared Dudley at the power forward position. Dudley is the presumptive starter, and should have much to teach Bender about the rigors of the NBA, but Bender with work could fall in line next. If minutes are in short supply at the 4, Bender could also possibly see time as a small forward behind the less than stellar duo of PJ Tucker and TJ Warren; his frame is much too slight to be slotted in at center and he has shown extraordinary handle for his size at 7’1”.

The Suns are not in a position to contend next year, and thus should look to get Bender minutes when they can, even if he may not be completely ready.

Prediction: Bench Player

#5: Kris Dunn, Minnesota Timberwolves

Dunn would likely have been a top 10 pick had he come out of last year’s draft, but instead chose to return to Providence and improve deficiencies such as outside shooting and turnovers. He goes to one of the league’s most exciting young teams to play alongside the likes of Karl Anthony-Towns, Andrew Wiggins, and perhaps less fortunately for Dunn, incumbent starting point guard Ricky Rubio. Although he certainly has his flaws, Rubio is talented enough to start, so the selection of Dunn alone doesn't immediately vault the former Friar into the starting five.

It certainly seems reasonable that the Timberwolves could look to trade Rubio; his biggest weakness (shooting) does not mesh well with a team that ranked second to last in the league in both 3-point attempts and makes. Dunn is talented enough to start in Rubio’s absence and he fits in better with the projected careers of Wiggins and Towns, but if the Wolves won’t or can’t trade Rubio, he’ll have no choice but to come off the bench.

Prediction: Role Player

#6: Buddy Hield, New Orleans Pelicans

With one of the best young players in the league on their roster, the Pelicans are now tasked with acquiring ancillary pieces that compliment Anthony Davis’ all-around game, and they may have found their man in Buddy Hield. Hield turned in one of the greatest shooting season college basketball has ever seen during his senior year at Oklahoma, hitting 45.7% of his threes on 8.7 attempts per game even while garnering more defensive attention than any other player in the country.

Hield didn’t have the most efficient summer league (33.7% overall, 24.3% from behind the arc), but as a shooter first, second, and third, his game should have no issue translating to the NBA. As far as depth chart competition, it’s likely that Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans, and Solomon Hill will start on the wing, and Hield will be competing behind them with free agent signing E’Twaun Moore, Dante Cunningham, and Alonzo Gee for minutes. Exactly how this positional battle turns out we will have to wait and see, but as a team still on the fringe, the Pelicans should and will give Buddy ample opportunity to unleash his craft on the rest of the league.

Prediction: Role Player

#7: Jamaal Murray, Denver Nuggets

It’s unclear right now exactly what position Murray will play in the NBA, but the fact remains he can flat-out fill it up from outside, as evidenced in his scoring output his last three games of summer league, putting up 29, 20, and 29 points respectively and a lone season at Kentucky shooting 40% from behind the arc. Murray’s athleticism isn’t at all elite at an NBA level, but he fits in well with sophomore point guard Emmanuel Mudiay due to his floor-spacing.

A starting gig may be hard to come by with third-year guard Gary Harris making major strides last season, but Murray fits the mold of a modern combo guard in today’s NBA (at least on the offensive end) and will have opportunity aplenty.

Prediction: Role Player

#8: Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns

As promising as Dragan Bender or Ben Simmons are, Marquese Chriss may have the widest variation between his proverbial floor and ceiling. On one side, Chriss’ outlandish athleticism, three-point stroke, and seemingly boundless potential could make him the steal of this draft, while on the other hand, concerns about his defense, rebounding, and overall IQ could make the selection infamous, typecasting Chriss as a classic bust.

The most realistic scenario mandates that, at least for his rookie season, Chriss will struggle, and with another option in Bender also ready to soak up developmental minutes, it seems that Chriss will be mired at the end of the bench for the foreseeable future, and the only thing keeping Chriss from the D-League is the Sun’s status as a non-contender, still enveloped in a rebuild.

Prediction: Bench Player

#9: Jakob Poeltl, Toronto Raptors

Much like the aforementioned Kris Dunn, Poeltl would have been a first-round pick had he declared for the draft as a freshman, but chose to return to Utah to improve aspects of his game and solidify his status as one of the most pro-ready prospects in the draft. Nothing about Poeltl’s game is particularly flashy; he doesn’t produce highlight tapes full of dunks, blocks, or three-point swishes, but instead excels as a screen-setter in the pick and roll and defends vertically, altering rather than blocking shots in high volume.

In summer league, he again put up solid but not mind-blowing numbers, at 6.8 points (on 66.8% shooting) and 7.0 rebounds per game. However, no matter how ready Poeltl is to play in the NBA, he will have no shot at surpassing Jonas Valanciunas in the starting lineup. Even though he doesn’t have the skills necessary to play power forward, the loss of backup center Bismack Biyombo in free agency opens up 22 minutes per game to be filled in some combination by Poeltl and third-year Brazilian big man Lucas Noguieria, who has only appeared in 35 games in two years. Nogueira may start the season as the backup due to his experience, but if anything we’ve seen from Poeltl thus far is any indication, he should be in line for the job sooner rather than later.

Prediction: Role Player

#10: Thon Maker, Milwaukee Bucks

Without even having played an NBA game, Thon Maker is already one of the more divisive rookies we’ve seen in recent years. The former YouTube mixtape sensation is extremely raw, and questions about his age only add fuel to a fire that almost immediately diagnosed the 7’1” big man as a bust. Maker did much in summer league to dispel this notion, but he will not be a trusted rotation piece for the Bucks until he adds weight to an incredibly skinny frame and gains an understanding of how basketball flows on a level higher than prep school.

Maker will also be stuck behind fellow centers Greg Monroe, John Henson, and Miles Plumlee on Milwaukee’s depth chart, but as things stand now, it’s probably not wise to throw him in the metaphorical fire just yet. Although the Bucks don’t have a designated D-League team, Maker could certainly see some time down a level in order to get the seasoning he needs.

Prediction: Garbage Time/D-League

#11: Domantas Sabonis, Oklahoma City Thunder

Sabonis was dealt to the Thunder from the Magic as part of the Serge Ibaka trade that also sent Victor Oladipo and Ersan Ilyasova to Oklahoma City. In his sophomore season at Gonzaga, he showcased a much more polished offensive game, becoming one of the nation’s most efficient scorers around the basket and vaulting himself into the lottery.

He has the tools to play either the 4 or the 5 at an NBA level, possessing adequate touch from midrange out to the three-point line, but with the Thunder may be in the midst of a crowded frontcourt rotation. Steven Adams and Enes Kanter are virtual locks to receive big minutes due to success in the playoffs, and Ilyasova will likely start at the power forward position because of the shooting lost with the departure of Kevin Durant and the arrival of Victor Oladipo. Franchise veteran Nick Collison, Joffrey Lauvergne and third-year big man Mitch McGary will presumably also fall in line ahead of the rookie, leaving little available for Sabonis. Still, it stands to reason that he will be ready to produce in whatever role he is given, and in what will be a down year for OKC, they would be remiss to deny him opportunity.

Prediction: Bench Player

#12: Taurean Prince, Atlanta Hawks

Under head coach and president Mike Budenholzer, the Hawks have made a pattern of developing 3-and-D wings off the proverbial scrap heap. 2015 saw former journeyman Demarre Carroll sign with the Raptors for $58 million, and this offseason the Hawks retained their own talent, inking Kent Bazemore to a $70 million dollar contract. In addition to Bazemore’s retainment, Atlanta drafted Baylor’s Prince, who was touted by many as a typical 3-and-D wing, much like Bazemore and Carroll.

Prince certainly has the potential to become a valued quantity much like Bazemore in due time, but competition abounds at the forward spots. Bazemore, Paul Millsap, Thabo Sefelosha, Kris Humphries, and Mike Scott should all see time at the 3 and 4, and to make matters worse, the Hawks also selected fellow small forward Deandre Bemby with their other first round pick. Evaluating Prince’s potential to produce immediately (he can) is basically moot, as he will, barring injury or extenuating circumstance, spend the majority of his time on the end of the bench.

Prediction: Garbage Time/D-League

#13: Georgios Papagiannis, Sacramento Kings

This was, by consensus, a large reach by the Kings, as Papagiannis had only begun to sneak into the first round of most mock drafts. As it stands, the 19 year old is a throwback, low post heavyweight that needs to improve his physicality and motor before he carves out a significant role in the league. In addition to his own development, Papagiannis is being tsked with emerging from one of the most crowded depth charts at the center position in the league.

Prior to the draft, the Kings already had 2015 1st round pick Willie Cauley-Stein, backup Kosta Koufos, and franchise centerpiece Demarcus Cousins on the roster, and even more curiously, Vlade Divac and company selected Kentucky big man Skal Labissiere with the 26th pick. With five centers on the current roster, it does not appear as if there will be any role at all available for Papagiannis nor Labissiere, who are both extremely raw at this stage.

Prediction: Garbage Time/D-League

#14: Denzel Valentine, Chicago Bulls

Valentine is one of the oldest and most battle-tested prospects in this draft, and if his Summer League performance is to be any indication, he has no fear of competing at the next level. During the majority of his career at Michigan State, he was the ball dominant alpha on the floor, putting up 19.2 points and 7.8 assists per game. In addition to his facilitating and distributing skills, Valentine is a prolific outside shooter, hitting 44.4% of his three-pointers on 7.5 attempts per game. The latter may be the skill that will be most instrumental in getting him onto the floor for the Bulls, as the Chicago starting lineup will feature a ball dominant, non-shooting trio of alphas consisting of Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, and Jimmy Butler.

Valentine will play on the wing, at either shooting guard or small forward alongside Doug McDermott, and provided he can surpass the disappointing Tony Snell, should be in line for major minutes during what will likely be a confusing season for the Bulls.

Prediction: Role Player