Saturday, August 13, 2016

The NFL All-Suspension Team

“Next man up” is a mantra that has pervaded NFL culture for years now, summing up the unforgiving culture and way of life inside America’s most popular sport. Roster turnover is a way of life, as careers are short, contracts are not guaranteed, and injuries abound. Along with the pitfalls of ACL, MCL, or other major procedures, teams now have to fear for suspensions, the likes of which are occurring with seemingly greater frequency every year. With so much talent sidelined for missed drug tests, PED violations, or other offenses, the league will be holding games without virtually an entire team of players, ranging from the mediocre to the Bradys.

But how good would this hypothetical team be? Let’s get into it.

Positional Options

Quarterback
There’s only one option, but it is perhaps the best option I could have had. Deflategate was one of the widest-reaching sports stories of 2015, but litigation and general ridiculousness has pushed back Tom Brady's actual suspension to this season. Regardless of what you feel about the Goodell-Brady relationship, having one of, if not the best quarterback in NFL history on our team is a huge boost.

Running Back
Another strong position as we have the pleasure of rostering Le’veon Bell, the Steelers star who averaged 92.7 rush yards per game. Because his suspension is due to a missed drug test rather than a failed one, there is the outside chance an appeal of his sentence would actually succeed,  but regardless of the final verdict, he makes our squad.

In terms of other options, Karlos Williams and Bernard Pierce are both available, on four and two game suspensions respectively; Williams for substance abuse and Pierce for unknown reasons, though he did have a DUI arrest earlier this year.


Wide Receiver
This is quickly becoming a potentially historic offense, at least at the skill positions, and wide receiver may be the most prolific position group. Thanks to Josh Gordon’s reinstatement and subsequent four game suspension, we now have two receivers capable of both stretching the field and dominating smaller defensive backs. The other is Steelers wideout Martavis Bryant, a 6’4 speed demon who was recently suspended a full 16 games for repeat PED violations after a meteoric rise led him to become a breakout star alongside Antonio Brown.

Our third option is Titans second-year pass catcher Andrew Turzilli, who is out four games for substance abuse, but with only two career receptions his rookie year, he may not be the best option for our offense.

Tight End
This is a good opportunity to explain some of the parameters I’ve arbitrarily set for myself in this adventure. For one, if there are no players currently suspended at a given position, than quote-unquote “replacement level” substitutes, or players who would be available for a training camp invite will be considered plugged in at their slot. To define replacement level, I am restricting myself to free agents graded as “minimum salary” or “C” level by ESPN Insider’s Free Agent Tracker. Replacement players may not be used if there are options available (suspended players), but if said position is not necessary for the construction of an offense or defense (wide receiver, tight end, etc.), then it may go without representation.

At tight end we have only Ravens sophomore Darren Waller, who garnered only two receptions in his rookie season out of Georgia Tech. At 6-7, he does present an interesting matchup issue for linebackers, so he could be an interesting choice when compared with our receivers.

Offensive Line
Experts have said for years that any position on the offensive line is intensely cerebral and requires peak decision making and judgement, and that certainly seems to carry over off the field. No offensive linemen have been served with suspensions this year, which initially seems curious as the massive men that protect the quarterback would seem the most vulnerable to PED suspensions, although this article does provide some clarity. (For what it’s worth, the NFL’s HGH testing has come under scrutiny as to its effectiveness.)

UPDATE 8/10: Eagles RT Lane Johnson has just been suspended 10 games for PED use, giving us a Pro Bowl caliber option at the position.

Defensive Line
Only two players available here, Demarcus Lawrence of the Cowboys and Sheldon Richardson of the Jets. I’ll get into exactly how we’ll construct our rosters later, but with only two options for our line, we are already a bit hamstrung with regards to personnel. Lawrence is in the tank four games for PEDs while Richardson more infamously is sidelined just one game for an infamous run-in with police a couple of months prior. Both are best utilized as ends, Richardson in a 3-4 and Lawrence in a 4-3.

Linebackers
After a proficient but small selection of linemen to choose from, it’s fortunate that we have a strong and deep crop of linebackers here. To start off, two promising but very different Dallas Cowboys in middle linebacker Rolando McClain and pass rusher Randy Gregory. While McClain was suspended 10 games for substance abuse in what has already been a tumultuous career for the Alabama product, Gregory’s struggles with drugs are more intense, having failed four tests in his career so far. OLB Aaron Lynch of the 49ers is coming off of a breakout year at just 23 years of age, but was perhaps not coincidentally tapped for four games as a result of a failed drug test. In terms of other options, we have Seahawks and Browns linebackers Nick Moody and Armonty Bryant, both in the hole four games again for PEDs.

Defensive Backs
Cornerback is an interesting position, with three young but largely unproven backs all suspended the standard four games for a PED offense. The Falcons’ Jalen Collins, the Packers Demetri Goodson, and the Jaguars Aaron Colvin all will likely see the field at some point for our squad, so there’s very little room for error in terms of personnel here.

At safety, we have two veterans who have had fairly successful careers in the league despite coming from different pre-NFL backgrounds. Will Hill, who entered the league as an undrafted free agent in 2011, has been a borderline starter (read: 2015 approximate value of 5) for first the Giants and now the Ravens during his four seasons pro. As he is suspended 10 games for substance abuse, his future with the Ravens may be in jeopardy, but with only two options at this position, being picky simply isn't an option.

Our other option is current free agent and former Bengal Taylor Mays, who has been a fan favorite due to his freakish measurables and hard hits, but never has put the physical tools together to become a prolific contributor on an NFL field. He has never racked up more than 15 tackles in a season, and with an eight game PED suspension looming, he won’t likely get picked up by another team this season besides ours.

Special Teams
In terms of a kick or punt returner, we will be fine using one of our available wide receivers or running backs, but kickers and punters are a different story. As one might expect, no kickers, punters, or long snappers are suspended for this upcoming season. With what looks to be a fantastic offense, having a great placekicker or punter may not be as important, but as with other positions, we will use the ESPN free agent tracker to help us pick up a player or two.

Constructing The Offense


As a base set, our offense will start with Brady, Bell, Gordon, Bryant, Darren Waller, and Karlos Williams at the so-called skill positions. The two receivers on the outside combined with Brady’s proficiency in the pocket will surely open up the running game for fear of being burned deep, and although neither Waller nor Williams are accomplished run-blockers, they should be able to do an adequate job, certainly better than Turzilli or an equivalent receiver. Williams is not the ideal pass-catching second running back (only 11 receptions his rookie year) but should at least demand enough respect to compliment Bell as our main option.

Given that defenses will both have to commit lots of help to our receivers on the outside and play lots of linebacker sand ends in a base package, which leads us to the unexpected key to our offense. Darren Waller’s coveted combination of size (6’7”, 238 pounds) and speed (4.46 second 40 yard dash) presents matchup problems for any linebacker or safety forced to cover him in a run-stopping defensive. Per his NFL.com draft profile, Waller is “almost impossible to guard” on back-shoulder throws and jump balls, the exact type of ball he would get in isolation against a smaller or slower defender, providing us with a suitable bailout should the defense stop our stalwarts at the skill positions. Offensive line is obviously the weakest link of our offense, as we are using minimum salary replacements.

Most of our available talent pool are veterans, and after sorting through those that have retired or not expressed interest in continuing to play, we have come up with a line of Left Tackle Tony Hills, Left Guard Mike McGlynn, Center Chris Chester, Right Guard Willie Colon, and Right Tackle Lane Johnson (the only suspended player out of the group). This line has a combined 37 years of experience in the NFL, more than the rest of our offense and a majority of our defense combined. Although Chester, Johnson, and Colon rank somewhere between decent to above-average on the talent scale, McGlynn and Hills each have been mostly non-factors for their teams last year, each posting approximate values of just 1. Obviously, any unit made up of replacement level players will likely be a poor performing one, but it’s just a casualty our other position groups will have to work around.

At kicker, we will use former New Orleans Saint Shayne Graham. Graham is a free agent after playing 6 games for the Falcons last season. With a career field goal percentage of 85.5% and 17 years in the league, he will be a solid option and should not be especially counted upon to bail out our offense frequently.

At punter, we will use for Utah Ute Tom Hackett, an Australian-born punter who has yet to play in an NFL game. Again, because our offense is setting up to be so prolific, and even though Hackett may not be particularly useful or talented at an NFL level, he certainly seems to be a teammate that will keep up the spirits of everyone else.

All in all, this should be a high-powered offense, and its ability to score early will be a welcome gift to our specialized but talented defense.

Constructing The Defense

With only two traditional linemen available, our defense in any front will be fairly susceptible to the run, so our base formation will be chock-full of linebackers. To start, we will plug in our two defensive ends, Muhammad Wilkerson and Demarcus Lawrence. Wilkerson is an elite run stuffer in a 3-4, while Lawrence is a pass-rushing end in a base 4-3 or outside linebacker in a 3-4.

At linebacker, Armonty Bryant is another hybrid end/linebacker who excels at rushing the passer, a trait this team possesses in no short supply. Rolando McClain is our one true middle linebacker, though more of a gap-filler than speedy coverage specialist. Our most talented pass rushers will reside on the far outside in Randy Gregory and Aaron Lynch. Both rely mostly on speed to create opportunities, but strength is in short supply for the two, specifically Gregory.

Our last option at linebacker is yet another edge rusher in Nick Moody and given that our team is already stocked with that player type, and also due to Moody’s limited experience (0 tackles in 3 games last year), we will instead use 3 cornerbacks in a 2-4-5 Nickel formation.

Aaron Colvin is definitely our best cornerback, and although he has had success in the slot with the Jaguars, he will have to match up with number one receivers on opposing teams. Demetri Goodson and Jalen Collins are both very unproven, but I give the second outside corner job to Collins mostly based upon his higher draft slot (2nd round versus 6th for Goodson). At the slot corner, Goodson will have to cover bigger tight ends and plug gaps in the run game, especially provided our base defense is a nickel package.

At safety, we again do not have the luxury of choice, as Will Hill and Taylor Mays are our only options here. Mays’ frame and hard-hitting ability will do well to stifle the run game, particularly provided he has the freedom to attack the back with momentum. Hill is also a better run defender than pass defender (only six passes defensed last year), but he is considerably better than Mays and should be able to read the field much better due to his wealth of experience.


Given that our strength resides in getting to the quarterback, it makes sense that we would send heavy pressure on almost every down. Not only will this take pressure off our largely unproven cornerbacks to cover for longer periods of time, but the constant gap-attacks will discourage the opposing run game. The key will be at the safety position, and if Mays and Hill can sniff out play fakes and occasionally bail out the corners, our defense will certainly be a tough one to score on. As I mentioned, the high-scoring exploits of the offense will make it necessary for opponents to play from behind, meaning it is likely they will need to score quickly through the air - playing right into our pass rushers’ hands.

Stats
Total Games Suspended: 118
Players Suspended: 25
Most Suspended Position Group: Linebacker, 7
Most Suspended Team (players): Dallas Cowboys, 3
Most Suspended Team (games): Pittsburgh Steelers, 20

Author’s Note:
More suspensions will continue to come across as we get closer to the beginning of the NFL season, however it is unlikely any high profile names will be the next to fall. All suspension and contract data was courtesy of Spotrac and all stats come from Pro Football Reference.





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