Wednesday, June 1, 2016

2016 NBA Mock Draft-a-ganza

We live in an age of quote-unquote “opinion entitlement” on which people live under the assumption that their usually underqualified, unwarranted output is desired or has value. No event better shows this than draft season. Mock drafts haven’t infiltrated non-sports society to the degree that the NCAA tournament has, but in sports circles, it’s a common recurrence for fans to follow the leads of noted pundits Chad Ford, Matt Miller, and Mel Kiper by creating their own mock draft. There’s an inherent thrill in predictions, and mock drafting offers an almost impossible task to be correct - not even the “experts” nail a majority of their picks, which takes out a lot of the misery that comes from incorrect bracket picks or missed bets. You heard it here first, mock drafts is the new gambling, and unlike daily fantasy sports, won’t become illegal in a couple years. The bottom line is, mock drafting is fun. So here's mine.

Important to add: these picks are what I believe the teams should do; who I would draft if I were in a position of power. This serves two purposes, 1) it makes the process more fun for me (pretending my voice means something) and 2) I can absolve all “blame” for incorrect picks. I’m not doing a second round because ath the very least I can pretend in doing the first round that some of these picks will be correct, while in the 2nd round, the odds are so low that I’d rather not waste the time writing a mini-novel for another round.

#1 Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons, PF (LSU)
Yes, insert an obligatory joke about the Sixers' roster of entirely big men. But the Sam Hinkie-less franchise has several pieces in the development process on the wing, where Brandon Ingram would reside. Robert Covington, Jerami Grant, and Nik Stauskas all could one day be a contributing piece in the future, and a pick of Ingram would choke minutes away from these young assets. Simmons may be a nominal power forward, but his role is that of a ball-dominant playmaker, a point forward in every sense of the phrase. Ingram, who has often been called a poor man's Kevin Durant not only because of his skill set but also because of his extremely slight frame may need a couple years to adjust to the physicality and size of NBA defenders. Simmons possesses a much more NBA-ready body, and he is most likely more ready to immediately contribute, a welcome possibility for win-starved Sixers fans. (If there are any left). The addition of Ish Smith, a ball dominant point guard saved the Sixers 2015 campaign from being historically bad, and with his free agency looming, Ben Simmons is ready to fill the role of Sixers franchise savior in a much better capacity.

#2 Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Ingram SF (Duke)
With the retirements of Kobe Bryant and Metta World Peace and the impending free agency of Jordan Clarkson, the Lakers are at the moment facing an upcoming season with Nick Young (player option and cheating scandal) and Anthony Brown (26 career appearances) at the small forward position. Although hope springs eternal in LA that the next big-ticket free agent is headed there, assuming Kevin Durant does not step into Kobe’s shoes, there is a need at small forward. Ingram is also clearly the best player available now that Simmons is off the board, making him an easy pick for Mitch Kupchak.

#3 Boston Celtics
Dragan Bender PF (Croatia)
The Celtics are in an interesting position with no glaring roster holes, seemingly lacking only one superstar to pair with Isaiah Thomas to become a true title-contending team. Thus there is much speculation that the C’s will trade out of the #3 pick, sending along the draft choice as well as some assets for a known and ready-to-contribute asset or star player. As it is impossible to account for this eventuality, the best strategy for the Celtics would be to take the best non-guard player available. In this case, it is Croatian power forward Dragan Bender. Bender has benefited immensely from the success of his foreign predecessor Kristaps Porzingis, although they may not be as similar as they may appear. Bender is not as athletic and not as prolific a shooter as Porzingis, but his ball handling and passing ability will fit nicely into Brad Stevens pace-and-space offense.

#4 Phoenix Suns
Jaylen Brown SF (Cal)
Thanks to the trade bonanza at the 2015 deadline and their selection of Devin Booker in last year’s draft, the Suns have a wealth of young talent at the guard position. Other than that, the franchise is a mess, having essentially quit on Jeff Hornacek mid season and finishing with the 4th worst record, just two years removed from 48 wins. The best non-guard player on the board is California's Jaylen Brown, who is raw and needs to improve his jumpshot, but has an elite NBA body and physical tools. He will replace the much slower and less athletic PJ Tucker at the 3.

#5 Minnesota Timberwolves
Buddy Hield SG (Oklahoma)
The Timberwolves have perhaps the strongest young core in the entire league, building around back to back rookies of the year Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins. A starting 5 of Rubio, LaVine, Wiggins, Dieng, and Towns is a wondrous collection of young talent, but what it does lack is shooting. Minnesota ranked second to last in the league in terms of both 3-point makes and attempts. (More on who was last later) They also ranked 28th out of 30 in terms of defensive rating, but it is easy to see how this could come along with time and experience. Jamaal Murray and Buddy Hield fit both need and talent for this slot, but I have the Wolves going with Hield for a couple reasons. For one, both LaVine and Rubio have played at point guard last season, and adding another combo guard such as Murray could prove problematic. Hield isn’t regarded as a proficient passer in the least, averaging only 2 assists per game his senior year at Oklahoma, but his shooting from NBA distance was prolific especially considering volume and the fact that he garnered more defensive attention than any other player in the country. Individual improvement of the young core is more important to the Wolves than plugging holes, so Buddy will make a nice complementary piece. Just don’t expect another ROY trophy.

#6 New Orleans Pelicans
Jamal Murray PG/SG (Kentucky)
The Pelicans entered last season looking to build off an 8th seed finish from the year before, counting on superstar PF Anthony Davis. Instead, they suffered a disastrous season full of injuries, regressing to a 30-52 record. Although point guard Jrue Holiday and shooting guard Eric Gordon are relatively young (25 and 27 respectively), Gordon will be a free agent this offseason while Holiday enters the market the following year. For better or for worse, the Pelicans are effectively stuck with Omer Asik at center for the next 3 years, thanks to one of the worst NBA contracts in recent memory. The Pelicans may not have a rebuilding piece at small forward, but they do have 4 players under contract at the position, so the right choice in this case is Kentucky's Jamaal Murray. Murray may not be extremely athletic, but he can feasibly play both guard positions and is a knockdown 3-point shooter. Expect for him to get many open looks from defenders helping on Anthony Davis.

#7 Denver Nuggets
Kris Dunn PG (Providence)
The Nuggets have young talent at every position, but their bigs are especially stacked. Coming into the season an unknown foreign stash, Nikola Jokic shocked everyone and became an analytics stud, finishing 3rd in ROY voting. Jusuf Nurkic and Joffrey Lavernge round out the trio of European bigs, all under 22 years old. Although 2015 draftee Emmaunel Mudiaay was taken to play point guard, and 2014 1st-rounder Gary Harris showed significant improvement over a disastrous rookie season, Kris Dunn is by far the best available player. Realistically, the Nuggets will take anybody who I’ve previously “drafted”, but in this case the best player available (by far) is Providence's Kris Dunn. Dunn could certainly go earlier, in place of Murray or Hield, but his tremendous steal ratings in college should translate and help him bolster a Nuggets defense that ranked 24th in defensive rating.

#8 Sacramento Kings
Skal Labissiere PF/C (Kentucky)
Predicting the actions of the most unpredictable franchise in the NBA can be difficult. It seems like at any given moment, either head coach George Karl will be fired or dynamic diva Demarcus Cousins is on the brink of being traded due to the  dysfunction between coach and player. Much like the Pelicans, the Kings are a team that lives and dies on the shoulders of their do-it-all All-Star center. Even with Rajon Rondo's free agency looming, the Kings appear to be set at the point guard position with the younger, better-shooting Darren Collison waiting in the wings, and although they are also deep in the frontcourt, the best players available in this tier of the draft are bigs. Skal Labissiere is undoubtedly a project, but his measurables and potential are off the charts. Having played basketball for a relatively very short time, hopefully he will be able to learn from the best center in the league and be ready for the King's Life Without Boogie.

#9 Toronto Raptors
Deyonta Davis PF/C (Michigan State)
Fresh off a season that saw them make the conference finals for the first time in franchise history, the Raptors have a clear formula for winning set out in front of them. Unfortunately, this formula involves heavy doses of DeMar DeRozan. Rumors about the explosive shooting guards future have been all over the place and inconclusive as of this writing, but it is almost a sure thing that DeRozan will bypass his player option and stand to see a substantial raise next season, no matter the team. None of this is terribly relevant to the Raptors' draft situation, but it is clear there are not any top-tier guards left at this point in the draft with which to replace him, so the Raptors best bet is to take Michigan State product Deyonta Davis. Davis is raw offensively, but shows great rim protecting and rebounding promise - something the Raptors have come to expect out of big man Bismack Biyombo, as the bruising center is also set to get paid in free agency next offseason following a heroic effort in the playoffs. Davis could provide a much cheaper alternative and could learn the finer points of post scoring from Jonas Valanciunas.

#10 Milwaukee Bucks
Marquese Chriss PF (Washington)
As I promised I'd mention, the Bucks ranked last in the league in terms of both 3-point attempts and makes. Jabari Parker and Giannis Antetokounmpo's stars are rising fast, even though neither can really be considered a reliable perimeter shooter.The Bucks saw success with a rim-running athletic center in Miles Plumlee as opposed to free agent signee Greg Monroe, but even though Plumlee doesn't feel like a long term solution, drafting a center is unlikely to happen, as the Bucks have 3 centers under contract for next season between Monroe, Plumlee, and John Henson. A point guard would feel like the best choice here, but there are none that fit this draft slot. Enter Marquese Chriss. The 4 from Washington can stretch the floor, and has been flying up draft boards due to his superior athleticism and shooting stroke. Defense and rebounding are concerns, but Chriss has the scoring ability to bolster a bench that ranked 29th in the league in scoring the past year. A trio of Antetokounmpo, Parker, and Chriss could be the most athletic and exciting to watch group of young players the league has ever seen.

#11 Orlando Magic
Jakob Poeltl C (Utah)
With former head coach Scott Skiles having recently stepped down, the Magic are a team without an identity. It stands to reason that their new leadership will look to build around young talent in Elfrid Payton, Victor Oladipo, Mario Hezonja,and Nik Vucevic. In Jakob Poeltl, the Magic get the perfect complement at center to Vucevic. Poeltl operates almost exclusively on the low block, while Vucci Mane is mainly a finesse stretch 5. The former Ute will certainly be an upgrade over journeyman center Dewayne Dedmon, who filled a similar role as Poeltl last season. A different type player at center will give the Magic’s new coach increased flexibility with different lineups and styles of play.

#12 Utah Jazz
Timothy Luwawu SG/SF (France)
Even with Trevor Booker's impending free agency, the Jazz are stacked in the frontcourt, what with Trey Lyles, Derrick Favors, and Rudy Gobert dominating the paint. The Jazz also have 4 point guards under 26 years old, although none have yet distanced themselves from simply being average, or in Trey Burke's case, sometimes worse than that. Although I think the best player available at this point is a power forward (more on this later), the Jazz are simply too crowded with young bigs to add another. On the wing, the best two prospects are foreign, shooting guards Furkan Korkmaz and Timothe Luwawu. Although the two possess similar skill sets, I see the Jazz taking Luwawu because of his superior wingspan. The prospect of a long, swarming defense with Rudy Gobert, Rodney Hood, Trey Lyles, and Luwawu should strike fear in the hearts of Western Conference coaches.

#13 Phoenix Suns
Henry Ellenson PF (Marquette)
I love Henry Ellenson. It’s a regret of mine that he slipped this far down, even in a mock draft. It’s a firm belief of mine that if you change his name to Henrik, send him to Lithuania instead of Marquette, and post his workout video on Youtube, he becomes the next foreign hot prospect. Ellenson has a solid NBA body, ready to play power forward or a “new age” smaller, more agile center position. He has displayed capable 3-point range with a form that should lend itself to progress on an already respectable 33%. Ellenson is a “plus rebounder”, and has shown the ability to take his boards coast-to-coast. His ballhandling ability in the open court means that he MUST be accounted for in transition, leading to open jumpers for trailing guards and spot up shooters. The addition of Ellenson into  the Suns frontcourt will take pressure off of Phoenix’s guards by attracting attention down low and attacking the basket against mismatched centers on the perimeter.

#14 Chicago Bulls
Domantas Sabonis PF (Gonzaga)
What a mess. Once expected to contend for the Eastern Conference, the Bulls fell apart in a big way. Derrick Rose is a shell of his former self, Mike Dunleavy is injured and old, Tony Snell is disappointing, and a frontcourt of Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic, and Joakim Noah has failed to either gel or play defense. With Noah reportedly wanting to leave town this offseason, and Gasol possessing a player option for next year, a rebuild may be on the horizon. The franchise's one bright spot, shooting guard Jimmy Butler will be the face of the franchise for the foreseeable future - unless he is traded to get back young pieces and draft picks. With such turbulence occurring around the roster, taking the best player available is probably Chicago’s best bet. Here it is Domantas Sabonis from Gonzaga. The son of former NBA center Arvydas Sabonis, the Lithuanian big man’s athleticism isn’t awe-inspiring, but he does have fundamentals on the low block like no one else in this draft. Ideally, Sabonis provides the future Bulls with a 2nd or 3rd scoring option to take pressure off of Jimmy Butler.

#15 Denver Nuggets
Furkan Korkmaz SG/SF (Turkey)
The best player available at this point in the draft is sharpshooting wing Furkan Korkmaz, who should be able to play both shooting guard as well as small forward. Korkmaz provides a good complement to Danillo Gallinari on the wing, although the Italian swingman could himself soon be out the door amid rumors of a potential trades with Boston and other teams looking for a wing scorer. Either way, the spacing Korkmaz provides will be welcomed by point guards Emmanuel Mudiay and Kris Dunn (previously mocked) who have both struggled from the perimeter at times.




#16 Boston Celtics
Denzel Valentine SG/SF (Michigan State)
With the character of Evan Turner hitting free agency, the Celtics can and should in this eventuality look to take a cheaper replacement in Michigan State’s Denzel Valentine. Valentine can play shooting guard or possibly small forward, and much like Turner, has the do-it-all ability to rebound extremely well for his position and facilitate to Boston’s shooters. Defense is a major concern, but it is fortunate that he will be playing alongside great individual defenders like Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder, not to mention a mastermind schematic architect in Brad Stevens.

#17 Memphis Grizzlies
Taurean Prince SF (Baylor)
If there were a “most likely to forego draft picks and instead sign and/or trade for any available aging scrapper” it would without question go to the Grizzlies. The franchise has consistently forgone changing cultures in the league and instead banked on grit, grind, Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. Even assuming Mike Conley and Lance Stephenson will be back (free agency and team option), the Griz will be counting on the declining and oft-injured play of Randolph, Gasol, and Vince Carter. With yet another old starter on his way out with Matt Barnes hitting free agency, wing depth is a major hole for Memphis. Baylor’s Taurean Prince looks like a perfect fit for both the Grizzlies and today’s NBA. His spot-up 3-point stroke should translate well to the NBA, and his long wingspan and physical tools should make him a force on defense. Prince’s weaknesses are his lack of ballhandling and facilitating skills, which should be negated when playing alongside the ball-dominant lineup of Mike Conley, Lance Stephenson, Zach Randolph,and Marc Gasol.

#18 Detroit Pistons
Demetrious Jackson PG (Notre Dame)
Stan Van Gundy is largely attempting to build a contender with the same mold that he did with the Magic - surround a monster big man with four shooters on the perimeter and let the four-out offense play itself out from there. In Orlando it was Dwight Howard, in Detroit SVG is building around Andre Drummond. In fact, all the pieces appear to be there for the Pistons to grow as a team on the backs of their young pieces; Reggie Jackson is young and improving, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is already an elite 3-and-D specialist, and Tobias Harris is perhaps finally in a place where his skill set can be utilized. Marcus Morris appears to have the power forward spot locked down, playing a career high 35.7 minutes per game. Taking the best player available is probably the best route for the Pistons, and here it is Notre Dame point guard Demetrious Jackson. With Brandon Jennings gone, the Pistons do not have a quality backup. (My apologies, Steve Blake.) Jackson will also allow for Caldwell-Pope to take an occasional seat on the bench, having played almost 37 minutes per game last season.

#19 Denver Nuggets
Damian Jones C (Vanderbilt)
I’ll be honest, until this point I didn’t realize the Nuggets had 3 first round picks, let alone 3 in the top 20. I could definitely see them using one or more of these picks either to trade up or trade for a proven player. However, assuming they keep the 19th pick, and given that any roster holes have presumably been addressed, drafting the top player on the board is the best solution. Vanderbilt’s Damian Jones is a physical force inside, and even though I previously mentioned the Nuggets wealth of young bigs, he contrasts nicely with the more finesse styles of play of Joffrey Lavernge and Nikola Jokic. Jones also brings length and shot-blocking ability to the interior, bolstering a defense that ranked 22nd in the league in opponent points per game.

#20 Indiana Pacers
Wade Baldwin PG (Vanderbilt)
After an impressive return from injury from superstar forward Paul George, the Pacers are ready to build around their leader. 2015 draftee Myles Turner has also impressed both on the offensive (10.3 ppg) and defensive (1.4 bpg) ends as a rookie. The short and uneventful Ty Lawson Era is over in Indiana, and although George Hill has one more year left on his contract, The Pacers should look to draft his eventual replacement in Wade Baldwin. The Vanderbilt point guard’s excellent spot-up shooting will fit well in filling the role Hill currently plays, and his weaknesses such as ballhandling and finishing at the rim will be mitigated as Paul George and his 30.4 usage rate dominate most pick and rolls and halfcourt sets. Baldwin’s outstanding 6’10 wingspan, solid frame, and lateral quickness will only add to a defense that ranked 7th in opposing points per game.

#21 Atlanta Hawks
Ante Zizic C (Croatia)
It might be time to blow up the Hawks. A 2nd straight playoff sweep at the hands of the Cavs has proven that the core Mike Budenholzer has assembled simply isn't capable of competing against the very top level of NBA competition. It is very likely that one of either Dennis Schroeder or Jeff Teague will be traded (probably the older and more expensive Teague). Two starters will enter free agency this offseason, small forward Kent Bazemore and center Al Horford. After taking over the starting spot from Demarre Carroll who last year signed with the Raptors, Bazemore greatly outperformed his previous contract, and is in line to get paid this year, although likely with the Hawks, as the team is short on wings and Bazemore previously expressed his desire to stay in Atlanta. Horford presents a more interesting case. Before the season, he was considered the cream of the 2016 crop, but a rather disappointing season (posting his lowest PER since 2011) has weakened his stronghold on the minds of the GM’s of the league. He’s never been a conventional center, posting low rebounding and rim protection rates but possessing a solid midrange and 3-point stroke. Whether Horford resigns or not is rather inconsequential at this point, as almost nobody taken in this range of the draft will be an immediate starter. Ante Zizic is a strong, physical center who rebounds well and at 19 years young, has room to grow and be ready to replace Tiago Splitter, whose one season so far in Atlanta has bordered on unsuccessful. If Horford does not resign, Zizic will be thrown into the fire amid a rebuilding process, a sink-or-swim process that will truly discover if the big man has what it takes for the NBA.  


#22 Charlotte Hornets
Ivica Zubac C (Bosnia)
The Hornets have, between Courtney Lee, Marvin Williams, Nic Batum, and Al Jefferson, 4 key rotation players entering free agency. With so many options open, it appears that point guard Kemba Walker will be the only known constant for this offseason. Assuming Al Jefferson will not be back in Charlotte because of his age-related decline and “dinosaur” style of play, the best course of action for Michael Jordan’s Hornets would be to take another foreign center, Croatian Ivica Zubac. Zubac can struggle on the boards, but he is very athletic catching lobs and working in the pick and roll, a quality that will mesh supremely well with point guards Jeremy Lin and Kemba Walker, who excel in the halfcourt pick and roll.

#23 Boston Celtics
Brice Johnson PF (North Carolina)
Another team with 3 first-round picks, General Manager Danny Ainge has a wealth of resources including multiple picks in the years to come. He likely would've loved one of the centers who went with the picks above as a lower cost replacement for one or both of Jared Sullinger and Tyler Zeller (both free agents) as part of his cap-cutting measures to try and land big name free agents like Kevin Durant. With both of them gone, they can still get an athletic, rim-running big man who blocks shots and rebounds well in North Carolina’s Brice Johnson. No big on the Celtics’ roster has the athletic ability of Johnson, and his 4 year stay in college will be a good fit for Brad Stevens’ cerebral style of coaching. The Carolina product has had consistency and foul issues in the past, but with time and careful coaching he should be ready to produce as a rotational player.   

#24 Philadelphia 76ers
Malik Beasley SG (Florida State)
With news of a potential Nerlens Noel or Jahlil Okafor trade, the 24 and 26 picks could be in the mix for a potential trade up or a trade for an asset. If they decide to keep this selection, a player at a position of need has practically fallen right into their lap. Malik Beasley has been flying up draft boards of late, and will most likely be selected before this point once the authentic draft comes along, but he definitely is a godsend for the Sixers here. Following the 2014 trade of then-rookie K.J. McDaniels, by all accounts a resounding mistake by Sam Hinkie, the Sixers have not had a shooting guard that could come close to being classified as even a decent NBA talent. 6’1 Isaiah Caanan played most of the season at the position in 2015, and even discounting the severe height mismatches his stature provides, he was still absolutely abhorrent on defense. In Beasley, the Sixers get a young and explosive player who scored at an almost never-seen-before level of efficiency (only Kyrie Irving has matched his points and shooting % output in a freshman season). He is limited in breaking a defender down one-on-one and getting to the basket, but once he does, his athleticism and finishing skills do the job at a fantastic level. Another potential pratfall of Beasley’s game is his defense,  but in all honesty, it literally can’t be worse than the performance Caanan put up last year.
For what it’s worth I do not hate Isaiah Caanan as a player. He is one of the best 3-point marksmen in the league, and the right situation could see these skills utilized to their fullest potential. In Philly, having to be a primary ball handler and scorer was more than he could handle.

#25 Los Angeles Clippers
Juan Hernangomez SF/PF (Spain)
The Clippers have for the last several seasons believed themselves to be just one or two pieces away from serious title contention, a status the core of Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, and Deandre Jordan have not yet achieved. The signings of Paul Pierce, Wesley Johnson, and Luc Richard Mbah A Moute have not produced a starting caliber player, and two are slated to become free agents. Paul Pierce, although he may be a valuable locker room presence, is rapidly in decline. There are two small forwards available at this point in the draft, Juan Hernangomez and Deandre Bemby. Even though Bemby is probably more ready to produce right away, his offensive skill set does not really fit what the Clippers do offensively. Hernangomez is not a great shooter,  but is better than Bemby (who originates most of his offense from slashing or posting up). Although not great with the ball in his hands, Hernangomez can mostly stay out of the way during the pick and rolls run by Chris Paul and Austin Rivers. He can also play power forward in lineups with Blake Griffin off the floor, a 4 out style that proved to be successful during Griffin’s infamous hand injury.

#26 Philadelphia 76ers
Tyler Ulis PG (Kentucky)
I talked earlier about Ish Smith’s effect on the then-hapless Sixers, but the journeyman guard is set to be a free agent, and at 28 years old, likely doesn't fit into the long term rebuild that is going on in Philly. TJ McConnell is signed through 2018, but starting TJ McConnell at point guard does not seem like a surefire path to success. (No offense, TJ.) Enter Tyler Ulis. The entire NBA took notice of Isaiah Thomas’ season,so much so that he earned a spot in the All-Star game, and his fit in a modern role may have done more for Ulis’s perception by scouts and teams than anything. Smaller point guards can work if they have the right amount of talent, and Ulis has the skills to pay the bills. Ulis is deadly from deep, and his shooting should allow space for shot-challenged wing Jerami Grant  (not to mention Ben Simmons) to work. The Kentucky product’s ballhandling and dribble-probing skills should also allow for open dunks for athletic big men Richaun Holmes, Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid (hopefully). Ulis’s quickness and IQ will allow for his defense to be an upgrade over Smith’s, although much like Caanan, that really isn’t a hard standard to achieve.

#27 Toronto Raptors
Cheick Diallo PF (Kansas)
With playoff hero Bismack Biyombo set to sign a fat contract in the offseason and Luis Scola set to be a free agent, Patrick Patterson represents the only power forward left on the roster of any merit. Patterson is a great shooter from deep, but does not offer as much toward athleticism, paint scoring or rebounding. Who does possess these skills is Kansas big man (and subject of one of my draft notes) Cheick Diallo. Diallo’s freshman season at Kansas left much to be desired, as he only played 7 minutes per game, but he solidified his draft status with a solid-to-great performance in 5-on-5’s at the draft combine. In terms of basketball IQ and the finer points of NBA level basketball, his learning curve may be steep, but he is extremely good running the floor and should next in line for a multitude of dunks and blocks what with his pogo stick hops and impressive wingspan. His “bust potential” is higher than most prospects, but for a franchise who feels they are a small step away from playing for a title, swinging big for a potential future starter may be their best option.

#28 Phoenix Suns
Deandre Bemby SF (St. Joeseph’s)
Even though Jaylen Brown was already mocked to the Suns previously, I see them going with another wing player here, namely St. Joseph's Deandre Bemby. The Pistons and Heat saw success last year with their selections of Stanley Johnson and Justise Winslow, versatile, physical wings who can defend 1 through 4. Bemby will add some physicality to the more finesse games of Devin Booker, Jon Leuer, and Mirza Teletovic. Look for the Suns to possibly target a power forward as well, specifically Ben Bentil (who I’ll write more on later).



#29 San Antonio Spurs
Guerschon Yabusele PF (France)
It appears the Big 3 era in San Antonio, the latest NBA dynasty, is finally over, as common sense would suggest Tim Duncan and perhaps Manu Ginobili will retire after this year. Thus, the Spurs will not begin a rebuild, but a reload, as they have under long-term contracts two-way dynamo Kawhi Leonard and midrange mastermind Lamarcus Aldridge. With cap room to possibly add another marquee free agent, it looks like the title window is not closed in San Antonio, especially with Kawhi Leonard becoming one of the top five players in the league. Executive of the Year R.C.  Buford has made a habit of drafting international players, and it stands to reason that they will look at a big here. Assuming Duncan retires, having averaged career lows in minutes, points, rebounds, and virtually all major statistics, David West and Boban Marjanovic will be entering free agency, leaving only the Red Mamba (Matt Bonner) and Aldridge to play in the frontcourt. Not ideal. Guerschon Yabusele is long and physical, and with time should be able to fulfill many of the same roles that David West did during this past season - rebounding, blocking shots, and finishing strong around the basket. Yabusele doesn't have great touch from distance, and like most international prospects, is somewhat of an unknown, but this seems like an idea pairing at this point.

#30 Golden State Warriors
Thon Maker PF/C (Sudan)
What do you get the team that has everything? Last year, in more or less the same situation the Dubs took UCLA power forward Kevon Looney, who played all of 4.2 minutes per game before injuring his labrum, sending him to rehab for 4-6 months. Assuming Harrison Barnes re-signs next year, the only potential roster hole would be at backup center, where both Festus Ezili and Marreese Speights are set to be free agents. Even so, this hole is more likely to be addressed in free agency, so the Warriors may as well swing big and take a high “upside” prospect. In terms of upside and intrigue, no one possesses more than the basketball enigma, Thon  Maker. Maker shook up the drafting world by declaring for the draft a year earlier than most expected, as he is essentially a high school senior (although at 19 years old). Maker has been a YouTube star ever since his sophomore year in high school, hyped as a player that would one day “revolutionize the game”. In the years since, as Maker has gone up against stronger competition, the hype has quieted slightly, but he does still have several unique skills for a man his size. His length and standing reach is outstanding, and he couples that with a sweet 3-point shooting stroke. In terms of offensive IQ and a general feel for the game, Maker is extremely raw and will need coaching, but he has the potential to develop into a viable rotation asset.
Revisions
Looking back on my mock draft, I feel like I at times over-drafted for need rather than talent, and this caused several players to be taken before or after where they actually deserve to and likely will be taken. Risers are players who will move up the board relative to where I have them, and Fallers are players who I may have taken too early just to fill a roster hole.

Risers
Kris Dunn
Mocked: 7
Likely Range: 4-8

Henry Ellenson
Mocked: 13
Range: 5-15

Malik Beasley
Mocked: 24
Range: 13-30

Fallers
Guerschon Yabusele
Mocked: 29
Range: 30-40

Brice Johnson
Mocked: 23
Range: 25-35

Draft Notes
If you watch any network’s or website’s coverage of the draft, you’re almost guaranteed to hear a specific player comparison that simply should not be accepted as a trend. Any undersized big man with a little shooting ability from the perimeter will surely be compared to Draymond Green. This will not happen. More often than people realize, success is impossible to replicate. Surely a team can mimic the [philosophy changes and style of play that the Warriors and Draymond exhibit, but without the exact right mix of players, it won’t measure up in terms of wins. I’m not calling Draymond a “system player”, but it is unlikely that the fiery forward’s skill set would have been discovered and utilized in any other situation. In terms of drafting, hindsight is 20/10, but for every Draymond Green there is a Brendan Dawson, another undersized (6’7) Michigan State power forward who plays with extreme physicality and possesses advanced ballhandling ability for his size and position. One is playing for an $80 million contract and making all-NBA teams and the other is in the D-League.

If you follow me on Twitter (@a_coffee4), you saw my mini-Twitter rant on Ben Bentil. Out of respect for the process and out of fear of my own bias, I did not include him in this first round mock. Bentil to me is often misrepresented as needing to play small forward at the next level, and therefore would possess inadequate skills to play on the wing. To me, at 6 foot 8, Bentil can surely play a brand of power forward that has been shown to be successful - and no, I'm not making a Draymond comparison. Paul Millsap is coming off of a second straight all-star team with the Hawks playing nominal power forward, but having such a diversified skill set that he does almost everything on the court. Like Millsap, Bentil has shown the ability to stretch the floor out to the 3-point line, post up smaller defenders, and take slower post players off the dribble. His playmaking leaves a lot to be desired,  but once this is developed,he could be a force attacking slower defenders, drawing help, and pitching to open shooters. Another knock on Bentil is his lack of offensive polish and shot selection. To this I counter with the fact that he has been playing basketball in the US only since age 15, coming to the country from Ghana. Another common (and misguided criticism) on the Providence product goes under the assumption that he will have to play on the perimeter, defending smaller and quicker players, and thus get “exposed”, but at 230 well-muscled pounds with a 7’1 wingspan, there’s no reason to believe that Bentil can’t hold his own on the low block. At the bottom line, Ben Bentil represents a rare breed of both past production and future potential, and I believe he has been largely and criminally overlooked by the NBA community. (As you can see from my Twitter rant, Bentil was at #56 in the Draftexpress rankings, and at the time of writing this he has moved up to 45.)

I can’t remember a trend that I have, at the same time, both hated and yet understood than the NBA draft’s one-and-done culture. I’m not referring to those stars such as Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram who will almost certainly “make  it” in the league and have shown why in college, but rather those such as Skal Labissiere or Cheick Diallo who have shown almost nothing at the collegiate level to prove they are a legitimate NBA prospect. Both of these draftees were highly touted recruits coming out of high school, but at the collegiate level the numbers do not bear out NBA readiness.
Diallo averaged only 7.5 minutes per game, scoring just 3 points per contest, while the Kentucky big man averaged 16 minutes and 6 points.

This isn’t to say neither of these two can be productive NBA players, perhaps even stars. This probably isn’t the wrong decision for either player. The general rule of thumb propagated by agents has been to leave college if you will be drafted in the 1st round, which guarantees a contract, and as of now it appears that both players will do just that. The unfortunate reality of this new draft culture is that the draft itself does not serve its intended purpose. It goes without saying that setting the draft order in inverse of the standings is meant to promote parity by ensuring the worst teams get the best players available. This intention gets messy when top picks become increasingly hit-and-miss and come with more inherent risk given the physical and mental immaturity of younger players. Much has been made of college basketball’s “one-and-done” culture; many pundits claiming it is destroying the college game. While they may have a point (regular season TV ratings were down 11% this season), I would argue the bigger impact can be felt on the professional game.

Top prospects coming out after just one season in college gives NBA scouts an extremely short window to scout said players, and leads to front offices having to draft based upon potential rather than production. The draft is no longer a proven path to success, as 76ers Process junkie Sam Hinkie found out. Although it’s clear there is a problem here, it is a problem with no clear solution or “villain”. The players are doing what's best for themselves by coming out early, for if  the money is there they would be fools not to take it, but at the same time, simply not offering the money to these players would be foolish on the part of the teams, compromising the best players based on some sort of principle. Mandating that players stay in school longer seems cruel, and yet removing the one-and-done rule would add more uncertainty to the entire process. This is an issue with no solution that will surely cause debate for years to come - but until then, here’s to the great frontier of the Prospective Draftee.

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