Wild Trades Shake Up The NBA: The Breakdown

Two major trades rocked the NBA landscape Wednesday afternoon, as during the Cavaliers victory parade, 3 starting point guards were swapped. First came the news of a 3 team deal between the Jazz, Hawks, and Pacers. The Jazz recieved former Pacers floor general George Hill, The Pacers took on former Hawks point guard Jeff Teague, and Atlanta was sent Utah’s #12 draft pick in Thursday’s draft. Not less than an hour later, an even bigger bombshell went off, as reports began to come out suggesting former MVP Derrick Rose would be finding new real estate in New York. As speculation and emotional fan reaction run rampant, let’s take a step back  and examine what these deals really mean for the teams involved.

The Utah Jazz have one of the best young cores in the league - Rodney Hood came into his own this past year, Gordon Hayward is nearing borderline “star” status (being designated as “untouchable” in trade talks), Derrick Favors has redeveloped his game, and Rudy Gobert has proven himself as one of the NBA’s premier rim protectors. With key contributors coming off the bench such as Alec Burks and Trevor Booker, the Jazz seemingly only lack a point guard to take them from young hopefuls to serious contenders.

They have tried to address this issue in recent drafts, selecting Michigan point guard Trey Burke with the 9th overall pick in 2013, then doubling down on Australian Dante Exum with the 5th choice the following year. In three years, Burke has proved ineffective, seeing his per-game minutes, points, and assists numbers all go down. Exum’s rookie campaign was also rather disappointing; although raw, the 6’5” 19 year old only managed to put up 4.8 points per game and a 5.7 PER, well below average. To make matters worse, Exum tore his ACL shortly before the 2015-2016 season, hampering both his individual growth and the success of the team. The Jazz turned to former 2nd round pick Raul Neto for around 50 games, before trading a 2nd round pick to the Hawks for journeyman point guard Shelvin Mack.

Although the former Butler star hadn’t stuck anywhere in the NBA, Jazz ownership believed he would help them make a run at the playoffs. Although that goal was not accomplished, it is important not to overlook the impact that a upgrade at the point guard position made upon the Jazz. Without Mack, the Jazz were 26-28, compared to 14-14 with him. This may seem like a modest difference, but Mack’s on/off splits emphasize his importance. The Jazz scored better in every provided offensive category with Mack on the floor, most notably offensive rating (from 105 to 110) and assist rate (up 3%). While Mack is under contract for next season, at a mere 2.4 million, it is smart for the Jazz to look for an upgrade, a longer-term fit that they won't have to wait on as in Exum’s case.

Enter George Hill. In exchange for a  late-lottery pick (read: another asset in need of development), the Jazz pick up a proven 30 year old who is coming off a season in which he shot a career best percentage from 3 and put up the 2nd most win shares behind superstar Paul George on a team that challenged the 2nd seeded Toronto Raptors for a playoff series. Hill’s contract also expires in 1 year, giving increased flexibility to the Jazz while also incurring some incentive for Hill to “prove it” and have a career year. The Pacers will be receiving what basically amounts to continuity, as the two point guards had very similar years last season, averaging almost the same values in most major categories, not to mention posting identical defensive ratings.

Teague and Hill are even slotted to make the same amount of money this season, and with both playing on expiring contracts, they should not hinder any free agency schemes either team has in the works. On the Hawks side of things, backup point guard Dennis Schroder finally gets the starting gig he has been demanding for close to two years ago.

The German 22 year old is very quick, and seemingly only needs a little seasoning before he is seen as a prized talent. By taking on the #12 selection, the Hawks free up an additional $8 million in cap space for them to retain starters Kent Bazemore and Al Horford, as well as using the draft selection to acquire another young talent. Rumors of a Teague trade had been swirling for weeks, and if trading him was a foregone conclusion and/or necessity, this wasn’t a bad path to take.

Analyzing a trade wouldn't be complete without grading it, and although this is most likely meaningless and reactionary, here goes:

Pacers: C

Jazz: B+

Hawks: B-

In what stole the spotlight from the aforementioned deal, news broke just over an hour later that much-maligned point guard Derrick Rose would be changing teams, heading to the Big Apple to join Carmelo Anthony, rising stud Kristaps Porzingis, and, well,  not much else. In return for sending Rose (along with bench warming shooting guard Justin Holiday and a future 2nd round draft choice), the Bulls received aging point guard Jose Calderon, 2015 1st rounder Jerian Grant, and starting center Robin Lopez.

At first glance, this seems like a bad deal for the Bulls, and many fans reacted negatively. However, the thought process of executives John Paxson and Gar Forman can be seen if you look a bit closer. Rose put up 16.4 points per contest last year, while far from his heyday, a certainly respectable number that should bolster a Knicks offense that finished 27th in points per game. However, on a team that should clearly feature star wing Jimmy Butler, Rose’s 27.3 USG% was much too high to justify, especially when his very-low assist numbers are taken into consideration (under 5 per game). Not much is to be said about Holiday, as the former title winning Warrior who according the the Value Over Replacement Player metric, actually performed worse than a replacement level backup. It’s important also to note that D-Rose is under contract for just one more season, making this move lower risk for both teams while also providing incentive for Rose to earn his way back into star status. It is unclear what will be done to fill the Knicks’ hole at center, but it is my hope that 7’3 Kristaps Porzingis will be given increased time there, where his rim protection will be better utilize and offensive skillset will create more mismatches.

The Bulls endured a disastrous season last year,  especially considering they were expected to be title contenders around a core of Pau Gasol, Joakim  Noah, Rose, and Butler. Under new coach Fred Hoiberg, the team never jelled, not even making the playoffs. With calls for a rebuild, it appears the Bulls are accelerating the process by shipping one large contract out in Rose. Joakim Noah has fallen from grace from his days of winning Defensive Player of the Year, and all indications from his camp suggest that he does not want to return to the Bulls in free agency, per the Chicago Sun-Times. Gasol has a player option for the upcoming season, but both sides may be better off should he decline it,  as at 35 years old, Pau would most likely like to seek out a winner as his next employer, while the Bulls would like to free up minutes for young frontcourt talent such as Doug McDermott, Bobby Portis, Nikola Mirotic, and Taj Gibson (“young” is used loosely in some cases).

Lopez replaces Gasol and Noah with a lower usage skill set, better defensive presence, and more importantly, better contract. The crazier-haired of the Lopez brothers is under contract for the next 3 seasons at under $14 million per year, a figure that will seem like a bargain once the cap goes up in the next two years. As for Calderon and Grant, one seems to be much more of a longer term fit than the other. Following his selection in last year;s draft, the Notre Dame product played somewhat sparingly his rookie year (15.6 mpg), curious for a team both as bad as the Knicks and needy at point guard. In fact, the 34 year old Calderon started at point guard 72 games this past season, bringing to the Knicks pedestrian numbers and dare-I-say atrocious defense. With just one more year on his contract at $7 million (?!?). It is likely that Calderon walks after next season, leaving room for younger talent like Grant or a possible draft pick. With a newly acquired hole at point guard, look for the Bulls to target first Vanderbilt's Wade Baldwin or Washington's Dejounte Murray with their #14 draft selection. On to the grades.

Bulls: A-

Knicks: B-

Hopefully this craziness represents the start of an event-filled offseason to take fans’ mind off the fact that basketball won’t be back until October (sorry WNBA). Nobody wants to live in an NBA world where the most-discussed topic is JR Smith’s torso.


All stats courtesy of basketball-reference.com