With seemingly all of the sports world focused on Kevin Durant's every move, it's been assumed that the best Sam Presti will be able to do this offseason is maintain a status quo - that is, to re-sign KD and hope to reach a championship on the backs of the dynamic duo of Durant and Russell Westbrook. The trade of starting power forward Serge Ibaka seemed to signify a sort of resignation to change on the part of the Thunder bigwigs, likely gearing up for a possible Durant exodus.
However, the team is currently $34 million in guaranteed money under the salary cap in its new, bloated state, and the possibility exists for the Thunder to improve upon last year's squad that reached the Conference Finals.
ESPN's Brian Windhorst reported yesterday that the Thunder were planning on "making a run" at the former Hawks big man, considered the cream of the rather weak class of post players. The connections make sense, as Horford played for Thunder head coach Billy Donovan on their championship Florida team. Hordord has also reportedly expressed interest in playing with Durant, and the most logical way to make that happen would be to simply sign with Durant's team Signing both Horford and Durant would take some shrewd moves, but it can be done. Here's how.
Salary Maneuvering
Both Durant and Horford can sign max deals of around $26 million, which would mean the Thunder would need to clear out an additional $18 million in cap room on top of letting non-guaranteed contracts of Dion Waiters, Anthony Morrow, and Ersan Ilyasova go.
Enes Kanter is a prime candidate to be shipped out, as his $17 million annual salary is the highest of anyone on the team not named Russell Westbrook. In fact, Kanter would likely be the one most negatively affected by Horford's injection into the lineup, as he previously came off the bench behind starting center Steven Adams, and lacks the speed or quickness to play power forward (more on that later).
Despite coming off the bench last season, Kanter set a career high with 21.7 points per 36 minutes. His offensive repertoire is very advnced and one of the most diverse in the league among centers, possessing the ability to bully opponents in the post, pick and pop in the midrange, and occasionally hit the three-pointer (10 makes on 21 attempts last season). Kanter is also a prolific rebounder, posting an outstanding 21% rebounding rate, including an eye-popping 16.7% offensive rebounding rate.
As skilled as Kanter is offensively, he plunges hard in terms of skill on the defensive end. His lack of speed and quickness led to him riding the bench for the most part against the Warriors in the playoffs. As a 7-foot center averaging only .4 blocks per game seems almost impossible, and his DBPM of minus-3.1 was by far the worst on the Thunder.
As such, there are relatively few teams that could afford to take on both Kanter's contract and defensive limitations. The Pelicans come to mind, as star power forward Anthony Davis could on paper make up for Kanter's lack of defensive talent. However, center Omer Asik is currently under contract 4 more years at over $9 million per year, but this shouldn't be a major roadblock for the Pelicans, as Kanter is a major upgrade.
In addition to Kanter, the Thunder would also like to unload wing Kyle Singler, although thi may be difficult to do. The Duke product has 4 years (3 guaranteed) left on the 5 year, $25 million deal he signed with the Thunder just last year, and hasn't exactly played up to this contract, scoring just 3.4 points per game and appearing in just 6 of the Thunder's playoff contests.
The small forward has been a career 37% three-point shooter, but last season posted only a 31% mark. He doesn't offer much else offensively, lacking in speed and penetrating ability, shooting only 45% at the rim. Singler isn't a great defender either, which makes it hard for him to receive playing time over more skilled wings on the Thunder.
The Suns are short on wing talent, specifically shooting from the small forward slot, as longtime defensive specialist PJ Tucker certainly isn't a great option going forward due to age. The Bucks also stand out as a team with little wing depth or three-point shooting. If the Thunder aren't able to trade Singler, dealing Kanter would still leave them under the luxury tax threshold, although it's unclear if owners and execs would be willing to pay that price.
If OKC isn't able to find a taker for Singler, veteran Nick Collison represents the only other expendable salary that would create the necessary room. All accounts indicate that Thunder management would not like to move on from Collison, as the former Kansas Jayhawk has been with the franchise his whole career, serving as an excellent mentor and teammate.
Collison would likely have more suitors than Singler, simply off of his deal only extending throughout the next season, although pinning down a specific team may be more difficult because of his wider-reaching appeal.
Horford's Fit
Although Horford has played almost exclusively center his whole career, he as always been somewhat of an awkward fit at the role. Horford is undersized at 6'10, and his skillset doesn't involve the traditional back-to-the-basket diet of touches mot centers demand.
Horford's game is built around his outside shot, taking only 30% of his field goals at the rim, although he did convert these looks at an impressive rate of 75%. Horford takes nearly half (47%) of his attempts from midrange or three-point range. having added the three-ball to his repettoire just last season, Horford shot 34% from behind the arc, presenting a matchup problem for opposing behemoths used to operating exclusively under the basket.
Although he isn't a prominent rim protector, Hordord still led the Hawks to a second-ranked defense last season, teaming up with power forward Paul Millsap to from an extremely quick frontcourt pairing. Horford's DBPM was 2.6, very high for an undersized center such as himself, and he stymied opponents to the tune of 1.5 blocks and ,8 steals per game, a far cry from Kanter's limitations.
With the Thunder, Horford would likely receive the starting spot at power forward, replacing the departed Serge Ibaka. Center Steven Adams is decidedly low-usage, and should have no trouble ceding touches to the more polished Horford. Horford wound also provide a great scoring option in the way that Ibaka couldn't when Durant and/or Westbrook were on the bench.
Along with the addition of shooting guard Victor Oladipo, who replaces offensively challenged wing Andre Roberson, a potential starting lineup of Westbrook, Oladipo, KD, Horford, and Adams would almost certainly be the best in the league.
Depth would certainly be an issue, what with Kanter and possibly Singler gone, as detailed in the potential depth chart below.
Point Guard
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Shooting Guard
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Small Forward
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Power Forward
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Center
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Russell Westbrook
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Victor Oladipo
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Kevin Durant
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Al Horford
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Steve Adams
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Cameron Payne
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Andre Roberson
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Josh Huestis
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Domantas Sabonis
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Mitch McGary
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Minimum Salary Player
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MSP
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MSP
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Nick Collison
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With speculation, running at an all-time high, it's important to consider all the possibilities of free agency, including one that could reshape the already competitive structure of the Western Conference.
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